Planet Labs Falls to Attractive Entry Zone as Speculative Buy Call Emerges

What happened

Planet Labs stock has plunged 74% from its May 2026 highs to around $14, prompting a Seeking Alpha article labeling it a speculative buy at 12x sales. The article points to 58% YoY Q2 revenue growth and non-GAAP profitability, but these figures were already incorporated in our prior deep value analysis. Our master report had rated PL a WAIT with an attractive entry of $14, based on concerns over declining RPO ($753M vs $852M), rising capex guidance, and ATM-driven dilution. The price drop aligns with our attractive entry, but it does not resolve the key risks: firm contracted value is shrinking and capital intensity is increasing. The next quarterly report will be pivotal to determine whether the Q3 revenue guidance of $101-105M was timing-related or signals weaker demand, and whether RPO stabilizes without further share issuance.

Implication

Monitor Q3 revenue near the high end of guidance, EBITDA beating the guided loss, and no additional ATM issuance. If these occur and RPO stabilizes, upgrade to a stronger buy; if RPO declines again, the bear case of $12 becomes more probable.

Thesis delta

The thesis shifts from a cautious WAIT to a tactical consideration of entry at the attractive price, but the fundamental concerns remain. The article provides no new data on contract quality or dilution, so we hold the WAIT rating pending Q3 evidence that RPO is stabilizing and capex is contained.