NuScale's Sub-$24 Stock Questioned Amid Pre-Commercial Risks and Volatility

What happened

NuScale Power maintains a regulatory edge with the only NRC-certified small modular reactor design, but it remains fully pre-commercial with no binding reactor sales contracts and significant financial losses. A recent Motley Fool article highlights investor interest as the stock trades below $24, noting a 52-week high of $53 and low of $13, reflecting extreme volatility driven by sentiment rather than fundamentals. Financial filings reveal heavy cash burn, with a net loss of $600.7 million in the first nine months of 2025 and reliance on equity issuance, raising dilution concerns. The company's leading U.S. project was cancelled due to cost overruns, underscoring severe first-of-a-kind economics and execution risks that challenge its commercialization timeline. Despite potential from global pipeline projects, the DeepValue report advises a 'WAIT' stance due to thin margin of safety and high uncertainty, making the stock a speculative long-dated option rather than a value investment.

Implication

NuScale's ongoing cash burn and reliance on equity issuance pose significant dilution risks, potentially eroding shareholder value even if the stock price appears low. The stock's extreme volatility, with swings from $13 to $53, indicates it is driven by sentiment and news, not operational progress, making it unsuitable for conservative portfolios. Key catalysts like securing binding agreements for projects in Romania or with ENTRA1/TVA are uncertain, and any delays or cancellations could further pressure the stock. Downside protection is limited to the company's cash and IP, which are being depleted by losses, offering a thin margin of safety in a negative intrinsic value scenario. Therefore, while the regulatory advantage provides long-term potential, investors should wait for tangible commercialization milestones before considering a position, aligning with a cautious 'WAIT' approach.

Thesis delta

The new article does not shift the core thesis; it merely reiterates the speculative nature of NuScale's stock at lower prices without introducing new operational or financial data. However, it underscores ongoing investor curiosity amid volatility, which reinforces the need for caution due to unproven commercialization and high execution risks. The stance remains unchanged: wait for concrete progress, such as binding contracts or reduced cash burn, before reassessing the investment case.