eToro Q3 2026: Account Growth Accelerates and Buyback Doubles, but Crypto Risk Unaddressed

What happened

Funded accounts grew 18% year-over-year to 4.39 million, accelerating from 16% growth in Q3 2025, indicating continued user acquisition momentum. The company announced a new $250 million share repurchase program, up from the previous $150 million authorization, which could offset dilution and support the stock. However, the press release omits critical operating metrics such as crypto trading volumes, revenue mix, and EBITDA margins that were central to the prior WAIT thesis. The absence of these figures raises concern that management is highlighting positive headline numbers while potentially concealing continued weakness in high-margin crypto activity. The update does not resolve the key uncertainty around whether earnings are sustainable outside boom conditions, so the wait-and-see posture remains appropriate.

Implication

The acceleration in funded account growth to 18% is a positive sign of platform stickiness and user acquisition, but it does not directly translate to revenue if trading intensity per user remains depressed. The doubling of the buyback to $250 million suggests management believes the stock is undervalued, yet buybacks can be used to mask deteriorating fundamentals and should not be taken as a standalone bullish signal. The press release's silence on crypto volumes, revenue contribution, and margins is a red flag; if crypto activity had improved, the company would likely tout those figures. Investors should demand detailed quarterly disclosures before upgrading the rating, as the core thesis risk (excessive dependence on cyclical crypto trading) remains unresolved. Maintain the WAIT rating with an attractive entry near $28 and trim level near $45; only a clear improvement in revenue mix and stable EBITDA margins above 30% for two consecutive quarters would justify a more constructive view.

Thesis delta

The new information shifts the thesis only marginally: stronger user growth and a larger buyback marginally improve the downside protection and management alignment, but they do not address the central concern of crypto revenue concentration. The lack of disclosure on trading intensity, revenue mix, or margins in this release means we cannot confirm whether earnings are normalizing or deteriorating. As a result, the WAIT rating remains unchanged, but we will monitor the next quarterly filing for evidence that non-crypto and interest income are scaling sufficiently to de-risk the model.