Nexxen Q3'26: Record Results Confirm Recovery and Strengthen Bull Case

What happened

Nexxen's Q3 2026 results delivered record Contribution ex-TAC and programmatic revenue, highlighted by 39% YoY CTV revenue growth and a 22% YoY increase in Adjusted EBITDA. This performance comes after the Q4 2025 demand disruption from a large DSP customer's supply path optimization, which management had scoped as isolated to that quarter. The record CTV growth indicates successful adoption of Nexxen TV and smart TV home screen products, as well as effective monetization of the V partnership's ACR data. Strong programmatic revenue suggests the company is reducing reliance on third-party DSP partners and gaining traction with its own platform. Overall, the results validate management's de-risking strategy and support the view that the prior disruption was indeed temporary.

Implication

Investors should view these results as a confirmation that the worst of the DSP-related disruption is behind Nexxen. The 39% CTV growth and 22% EBITDA increase indicate operating leverage and successful execution on strategic priorities. However, the company still faces competitive CTV CPM pressure and macroeconomic uncertainty in ad spending. The upcoming quarters should show whether this growth is sustainable, particularly in programmatic revenue outside of CTV. If the company continues to deliver on guidance and executes its buyback program, the stock could re-rate towards the bull scenario value of $10.20.

Thesis delta

The thesis shifts from a potential buy waiting for confirmation to a strengthening bull case. The record Q3 results provide concrete evidence that the Q4 2025 DSP disruption was temporary and that the company's strategic initiatives are working. Conviction in the base and bull scenarios increases, while the bear scenario probability decreases.