Nu Q3 revenue beat, but key credit and capital metrics remain opaque

What happened

Nu Holdings reported Q3 2026 results with EPS meeting analyst estimates and revenue exceeding expectations. The headline 'strong Q3' is misleading, as the company has been under scrutiny for rising credit costs and capital consumption highlighted in our prior deep dive. The news release provides no details on the metrics that matter: risk-adjusted net interest margin, NPL trends, Brazil CET1, or Mexico's post-bank-launch performance. Without evidence that those concerns are easing, the revenue beat alone does not warrant a rating change from our WAIT stance. The stock remains in a 'show-me' phase, and investors should demand granular disclosures before paying up for growth.

Implication

The Q3 revenue beat is a positive but insufficient to address the core thesis risks of rising provisions, compressed risk-adjusted NIM, and falling capital buffers. Management has not yet demonstrated that Mexico's bank conversion is adding value without accelerating delinquencies. Brazil's CET1 level and excess regulatory capital margin remain critical indicators; stabilization above 11.3% is required to restore confidence. If upcoming filings show these metrics improving, the stock could re-rate toward the bull scenario of $18, but if they deteriorate, downside to $11 is plausible. Until then, investors should keep positions small and use any price strength above $17 as a trimming opportunity.

Thesis delta

The Q3 headline results do not change our WAIT rating. Revenue growth continues, but the investment thesis hinges on credit quality and capital generation, which are not addressed in the initial release. We need to see whether the revenue beat was accompanied by stable or improving risk-adjusted NIM and no further deterioration in NPLs or CET1.