DLocal Q3 TPV Surges 77% to $18.3B, Opex Drops Sequentially

What happened

dLocal's latest quarterly results show total payment volume growing 77% year over year to $18.3 billion, far above the 40–50% growth assumed in our base case. Operating expenses declined 11% sequentially while headcount fell 3%, indicating tighter cost control after a period of elevated spending. These figures suggest the company is scaling volume rapidly while curbing expenses, a combination that could partially offset the margin compression we previously flagged. However, the article omits critical unit economics metrics such as gross profit per TPV and adjusted EBITDA margin, which remain our primary concern. Until those metrics demonstrate stabilization, the fundamental question of take-rate durability remains unanswered.

Implication

The acceleration in TPV growth to 77% and the sequential decline in operating expenses suggest management is executing on both top-line expansion and cost efficiency. If this trend continues, it could support the bull scenario of >45% annual TPV growth and expanding margins. However, without visibility into gross profit per TPV and EBITDA margin, we cannot conclude that the structural take-rate compression we identified in the master report has been reversed. Investors should monitor the next quarterly report for gross profit/TPV near or above 1.05% and adjusted EBITDA margin holding in the mid-20s. Absent that evidence, we maintain our WAIT rating and prefer an entry below $12 or after two consecutive quarters of margin stabilization.

Thesis delta

The master report's WAIT rating was predicated on strong growth but declining unit economics. The new data show even stronger volume growth and improving cost discipline, which partly addresses our concerns about opex scalability. However, the core thesis risk—gross profit per TPV remaining near 0.99% or lower—is not addressed by this article. Consequently, our rating remains WAIT, but the balance of risk may be shifting positively if subsequent quarters confirm margin stabilization.