Nu's Q3 customer and earnings growth strengthens but does not resolve capital and credit concerns

What happened

Nu Holdings reported continued customer growth, reaching 143 million total customers across all markets as of a recent Motley Fool article dated November 15, 2026. The same report indicated third-quarter net income rose to $1.1 billion, up from $871.4 million in Q1 2026. While the headline figures show strength on scale and profitability, they do not address the specific metrics identified as key risks in the DeepValue master report: Brazil CET1 stability, risk-adjusted net interest margin recovery, and NPL 15-90 normalization. The higher net income could reflect lower credit costs, higher revenue, or one-time items, but without disclosure of these drivers, the improvement is ambiguous. Consequently, the positive news is insufficient to upgrade the investment stance from WAIT until capital and credit quality data confirm sustainable improvement.

Implication

The increase in net income to $1.1 billion is above the base case threshold of $900 million quarterly, but it does not guarantee that capital generation has improved relative to risk-weighted asset growth. Without confirmation that Brazil CET1 has stabilized at or above 11.3% and risk-adjusted NIM has recovered above 9.5%, the improvement may be driven by lower provisions that could reverse. If subsequent reports show those metrics improving, the stock could be re-rated toward the bull case implied value of $18. Conversely, if capital and credit metrics remain weak despite higher net income, the stock may remain range-bound or decline toward the bear case implied value of $11. The upcoming quarterly filing after Mexico's bank launch will be critical for validating whether the growth is self-funded and sustainable.

Thesis delta

The new data point confirms continued customer growth and a stronger third-quarter profit than previously observed, but it does not address the key concerns about capital consumption and credit quality. The thesis remains that Nu is a scaled, low-cost digital bank whose premium valuation depends on stabilizing CET1, improving risk-adjusted NIM, and controlling early-stage delinquencies. Until those metrics are reported in the next quarter, the WAIT stance remains appropriate.