Rezolve Unveils Aggressive 2026 Targets and First Profit Amid Unverified Growth Claims

What happened

Rezolve's management issued new guidance projecting $40M 2025 revenue, $350M 2026 revenue, and $500M ARR, far exceeding analyst expectations and highlighting deep integrations with Microsoft and Google as core enterprise infrastructure. This follows the company's first profitable month in December 2025, suggesting a potential financial inflection point from its near-zero revenue base in 2024. However, the DeepValue master report emphasizes that these claims remain unaudited and cautions that the stock's current $3.64 price implies a valuation of 4-5x expected 2025 exit ARR above $200M, with high execution and partner-dependence risks. The report's 'WAIT' rating is based on the need for verified FY25 results to confirm ARR quality, gross margins above 85%, and sustainable revenue, as past filings show significant losses and going-concern warnings. Investors should view this news skeptically, as the guidance may be optimistic and the crowded, hype-sensitive trade offers limited downside protection without audited validation.

Implication

For momentum-driven investors, the positive news could spur short-term price appreciation, but it risks amplifying volatility in an already crowded stock. The guidance underscores Rezolve's reliance on Microsoft and Google channels, which, if successful, could accelerate ARR growth, yet any partner pullback would severely impact the thesis. Profitability in December is a modest step, but it must be replicated in subsequent months to prove operational scalability and justify high gross margin assumptions. Long-term holders should maintain caution, as the market's optimistic pricing leaves little room for error, and any shortfall in audited FY25 numbers could trigger a re-rating toward the bear case of $2.00. Ultimately, this development reinforces the DeepValue report's stance: delay investment until audited results provide clarity on cash generation, contract quality, and partner sustainability.

Thesis delta

The new guidance does not fundamentally shift the investment thesis, as it remains based on unaudited claims that require verification in the upcoming FY25 audit. It raises the bar for execution, making the $500M 2026 ARR target a critical benchmark, but the core recommendation to wait for audited financials persists due to unresolved risks around ARR quality and partner dependency. Thus, the thesis remains unchanged, with increased scrutiny on whether management can deliver on these ambitious projections without compromising margins or facing channel setbacks.