Ondas Raises 2026 Revenue Target Amid Skepticism Over Execution

What happened

Ondas Holdings has updated its financial outlook, announcing that preliminary 2025 revenue estimates exceed prior targets and raising its 2026 revenue projection to $170-$180 million. This represents a significant increase from the previous guidance of over $110 million, signaling heightened growth ambitions. The company also reports a pro-forma cash balance of $1.5 billion, supported by recent equity financings. However, the DeepValue report highlights that Ondas's valuation already prices in rapid scaling, with a modest backlog of $22.2 million and ongoing losses raising execution concerns. The revised target thus amplifies the need for consistent contract conversions and margin improvements to sustain investor confidence.

Implication

Investors should interpret the raised revenue target as a positive but cautious signal, given Ondas's history of losses and dilution. The new target of $170-$180 million for 2026 surpasses the report's bull case of $120 million, indicating a more aggressive growth trajectory. With a strengthened cash position, the company has resources to invest, but cash burn and operating expenses must be managed to avoid further dilution. Critical evaluation of backlog growth and gross margin trends over the next quarters is essential to validate this ambition. Ultimately, while the news may drive short-term optimism, long-term value creation depends on Ondas delivering on these heightened expectations without compromising profitability.

Thesis delta

The investment thesis shifts upward as revenue targets are increased, potentially raising the probability of the bull scenario. However, core risks persist, including execution challenges from a narrow customer base, competitive pressures, and ongoing dilution from equity raises. Investors should balance optimism with vigilance, awaiting concrete evidence of backlog conversion and margin expansion to justify the elevated valuation.