Seeking Alpha Initiates Amprius as Buy, But DeepValue Report Warns of Overvaluation and Risks

What happened

Seeking Alpha initiated Amprius Technologies with a buy rating, highlighting its silicon-anode battery technology and projecting triple-digit revenue growth with positive EBITDA by FY26 from aviation and mobility sectors. However, the DeepValue master report rates the stock as a potential sell, noting that the company remains loss-making, equity-funded, and lacks a margin of safety at its current valuation. Critical filings reveal significant customer concentration, with one customer accounting for 35% of revenue, and ongoing reliance on ATM equity issuance to fund operations despite a $53.3M backlog. The report emphasizes that while revenue growth is strong—173% year-over-year in Q3 2025—gross margin is only around 15%, and persistent negative free cash flow raises dilution risks. Overall, the bullish initiation adds to a crowded narrative, but fundamental analysis suggests that high expectations are already priced in, with downside potential if execution falters.

Implication

The Seeking Alpha article may boost short-term sentiment, but it fails to address the DeepValue report's findings of unproven profitability and high dilution risk from ongoing equity issuance. With a market cap of ~$1.36B and negative earnings, Amprius is priced for perfect execution, yet its reliance on a few aviation customers and contract manufacturing introduces volatility. Key investor takeaways include monitoring backlog conversion, gross margin trends above 15%, and share count changes to assess dilution impact. The report's scenarios suggest limited upside in the base case and significant downside in the bear case, highlighting poor risk-reward. Therefore, trimming positions or waiting for a lower entry point near $7.00 is prudent until evidence of sustainable profitability and reduced dependency emerges.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha initiation adds to the bullish market sentiment but does not shift the investment thesis based on fundamental risks outlined in the DeepValue report. No new operational or financial data is presented that would alter concerns over customer concentration, equity dilution, or the path to profitability. Thus, the thesis remains that Amprius is overvalued, with a potential sell rating justified until improvements in margins and capital allocation are demonstrated.