UAMY Lands $352M Critical-Minerals Deals, But Execution and Valuation Still Dominate the Story

What happened

United States Antimony has secured two contracts totaling $352 million, a transformational figure relative to its recent annual revenue base of under $30 million and its history of operating losses. The deals appear tied to surging U.S. demand and policy focus on critical minerals, positioning UAMY more clearly as a domestic supply-chain partner rather than a niche producer on the margin. Against this strategic win, the company still brings a stretched balance sheet, a deeply negative P/E, and heavy reliance on successfully restarting and scaling facilities such as Madero to meet any large new volume commitments. With contract terms, duration, capital requirements, and margin structure not yet disclosed, it remains unclear how much of the $352 million will translate into sustainable, high-return cash flows versus working-capital and capex strain. Near term, the stock is likely to trade more on the optics of large headline contract value and critical-minerals scarcity than on the still-weak fundamental metrics referenced in the prior DeepValue work.

Implication

For investors, the $352 million of contracts dramatically increase the potential revenue runway and validate that UAMY’s assets have real strategic value in the U.S. critical-minerals ecosystem, which could support sentiment and reduce perceived tail risk if converted into profitable backlog. At the same time, the sheer scale of the commitments versus current operations implies substantial execution risk around mining, processing, logistics, and the Madero restart, and likely necessitates incremental capex and working capital that could stress an already leveraged balance sheet. Valuation remains demanding versus the prior DCF-based intrinsic value estimate (~$0.41 vs. an $11+ share price), so even a sizeable earnings uplift would have to be both durable and capital-efficient to justify current levels. In the near term, trading dynamics may be driven by momentum and headline re-rating rather than by proven cash-flow inflection, making position sizing and risk management critical for anyone engaging with the name. Fundamentally oriented investors may prefer to stay on the sidelines or maintain an underweight until there is disclosure on contract economics and at least a couple of quarters demonstrating that the new deals are being executed at attractive margins without destabilizing the balance sheet.

Thesis delta

The headline $352 million of contracts is a positive surprise that increases the probability UAMY can achieve sustained positive EBITDA and free cash flow if it executes operationally, and it partially validates the strategic logic of its vertical-integration strategy and facility restarts. However, in the absence of visibility on contract margins, duration, capex needs, and financing structure, the prior SELL thesis based on extreme valuation versus modeled intrinsic value, weak earnings history, and elevated balance-sheet risk remains largely intact, albeit with greater upside optionality and lower confidence in the depth of downside. We shift from a straightforward valuation-based SELL toward a more nuanced underweight/avoid stance that emphasizes waiting for evidence of profitable contract execution before revisiting a potential move to HOLD.