Lucid Stock Falls as Stifel Cuts Price Target Despite Delivery Surge

What happened

Lucid's stock declined after Stifel lowered its price target to $17 per share, signaling analyst skepticism. This move contrasts with recent delivery growth that had buoyed investor optimism, including a near-doubling in 2025 production guidance. The DeepValue report underscores Lucid's strained finances, with deeply negative free cash flow and high execution risks in scaling the Gravity SUV. Stifel's reduction likely reflects concerns over Lucid's ability to achieve profitability amid luxury EV discounting and persistent cash burn. Investors must now weigh delivery momentum against the company's fragile liquidity and dilution threats.

Implication

Stifel's lowered target emphasizes that delivery growth alone may not offset Lucid's financial vulnerabilities, including negative cash flow and rising capital expenditures. Investors should monitor the Gravity SUV ramp closely, as any delays or margin shortfalls could exacerbate cash burn and force dilutive funding. The company's reliance on Saudi backing and technology licensing provides some optionality, but these levers are untested at scale. Near-term, focus on quarterly delivery figures, gross margin trends, and liquidity updates to gauge sustainability. Overall, this news reinforces the need for patience, with the stock likely remaining volatile until Lucid demonstrates a clear path to breakeven.

Thesis delta

The Stifel price target reduction aligns with our existing HOLD view, emphasizing that delivery improvements do not yet mitigate core financial and execution risks. It strengthens the case for vigilance on Gravity ramp progress and cash flow trends, but does not warrant a material shift in recommendation absent further deterioration. Investors should await evidence of sustained margin improvement or successful licensing deals before considering a more bullish stance.