Symbotic's Q4 FY2025 Results Underscore Loss-Making Trend Despite Massive Backlog

What happened

Symbotic reported its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 results on November 24, 2025, highlighting ongoing financial performance amid a substantial $22.4 billion remaining performance obligation. The company continues to face operating losses, as seen in Q3 FY2025 with a net loss of $5.9 million, despite revenue visibility from Walmart and GreenBox commitments. Extreme customer concentration persists, with Walmart accounting for roughly 87% of FY2024 revenue, amplifying dependency risks. Competitive pressures in warehouse automation and elevated leverage at 12.11x net debt to EBITDA further challenge profitability prospects. These results likely address progress on key initiatives like the Walmart MAA and GreenBox JV, but without detailed figures, the full impact remains unclear.

Implication

The Q4 FY2025 results reinforce Symbotic's struggle to achieve profitability despite a $22.4 billion RPO, indicating that revenue growth alone may not suffice without cost control and margin expansion. High leverage and volatile free cash flow, as noted in previous quarters, elevate financial risk and could hinder investment in competitive differentiation. Walmart's dominance at 87% of revenue means any slowdown in its rollout or contract changes could severely impact Symbotic's outlook and stock stability. The GreenBox JV's $7.5 billion commitment offers potential upside, but delayed orders or execution missteps would exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Overall, the HOLD thesis holds, requiring sustained operational improvements and reduced customer dependency before considering a upgrade to BUY.

Thesis delta

The latest results do not materially shift the HOLD thesis, as Symbotic remains unprofitable with entrenched risks from customer concentration and competition. Any incremental progress on Walmart APD or GreenBox orders in Q4 would be positive but insufficient to alter the cautious outlook without consistent profitability. Investors should await detailed financial disclosures to assess if the path to positive cash flow and lower leverage is accelerating.