Blue Origin's Satellite Plan Intensifies Competitive Pressure on Overvalued AST SpaceMobile

What happened

Blue Origin announced it will launch its own space satellite network in late 2027, causing AST SpaceMobile's stock to slide as investors reassess competitive threats. This news amplifies concerns from the DeepValue report, which rates ASTS a STRONG SELL due to its $34 billion market cap despite being pre-revenue with no service income. The report highlights ASTS's reliance on flawless execution and funding in a crowded field against giants like SpaceX and Amazon. Blue Origin's entry adds another well-capitalized rival, potentially squeezing ASTS's market opportunities and pricing power before it even generates recurring revenue. This development underscores the fragility of ASTS's valuation, which already prices in a near-perfect bull scenario.

Implication

The announcement of Blue Origin's satellite network directly heightens competitive intensity in the direct-to-device satellite space, threatening ASTS's ability to secure market share and achieve profitability. Given ASTS's capital-intensive model and lack of service revenue, this could accelerate funding shortfalls and force further dilutive financing, aligning more closely with the report's bear case. Investors must closely monitor ASTS's launch cadence and revenue conversion over the next 6-12 months, as any delays will likely amplify negative sentiment. The stock's current valuation, which assumes rapid execution and adoption, now faces additional headwinds that may not be priced in. Overall, this reinforces the need for extreme caution, with potential for re-rating towards the report's lower implied values if execution falters.

Thesis delta

The DeepValue report already flagged competition as a major risk, but Blue Origin's specific plans make this threat more immediate and concrete, shifting the thesis incrementally towards the bear scenario. This increases the likelihood of funding pressures and slower commercial adoption, potentially lowering the attractive entry price below $60 and shortening the re-assessment window. Investors should weigh the heightened probability of dilution and competitive setbacks against the already stretched valuation.