QUBT's 2025 Milestones Fail to Address Core Valuation Concerns Amid Speculative Frenzy

What happened

Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has highlighted key 2025 milestones, including a NASA subcontract, its first sale to a U.S. bank, the opening of its Tempe photonic chip foundry, and inclusion in the Russell indexes, as noted in a recent Zacks article. However, the DeepValue report reveals that these developments, while enhancing industry visibility, have not translated into meaningful revenue growth, with trailing-twelve-month revenue at only ~$0.5 million. The company's ~$1.6 billion market cap prices in aggressive commercialization assumptions, yet financial filings show Q3 2025 revenue of $384,000 and net income driven by non-operating gains rather than core operations. Insider selling patterns, with clustered sales at elevated prices in mid-2025, signal internal caution and undermine bullish narratives. Ultimately, these milestones do not substantiate the current valuation or alter the fundamental risk-reward skew, which remains heavily dependent on unproven business model execution.

Implication

The milestones boost QUBT's profile but fail to demonstrate scalable revenue, leaving the ~$1.6 billion market cap disconnected from ~$0.5 million TTM revenue. Insider sales at prices above $15 indicate management skepticism about near-term value, compounding speculative volatility risks. Despite a cash-rich balance sheet (~$813 million in liquid assets), capital allocation discipline is untested, with potential for value-destructive spending if commercialization lags. The DeepValue report's STRONG SELL rating, based on a 45% probability of gradual adoption and 40% bear case, remains relevant as revenue growth stays minimal. Until QUBT shows clear, multi-million-dollar recurring contracts or foundry utilization, investors should preserve capital and wait for evidence of commercial inflection.

Thesis delta

The Zacks article reiterates known 2025 milestones without providing new financial data or contract details, so the DeepValue thesis remains unchanged. Revenue has not materially increased beyond the low base, and insider selling reinforces caution, aligning with the report's view that sentiment normalization poses downside risk. No shift in investment stance is warranted until mid-2026 revenue targets or larger recurring deals are disclosed.