Amgen's MariTide Hype Meets Cautious Reality in DeepValue Analysis

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article from January 22, 2026, rates Amgen as a Buy, emphasizing the transformative potential of its obesity drug candidate MariTide and citing recent 12% revenue growth. However, DeepValue's master report, based on Q3 2025 SEC filings, maintains a 'WAIT' rating due to Amgen's high valuation at 25x P/E and 16.7x EV/EBITDA, which already embeds significant MariTide success. The company's Q3 2025 results showed 12% revenue growth but only 1% non-GAAP EPS growth as R&D and capex rose, while legacy products like Enbrel face steep price declines and Prolia/Xgeva erosion looms. Despite a 22% stock rally over the past year, MariTide's Phase 3 data is unproven, with risks from gastrointestinal tolerability and state Medicaid coverage cuts for GLP-1 drugs. The base business relies on newer assets like Repatha and Horizon products for volume growth, but high leverage and pricing headwinds create a balanced risk-reward at current levels.

Implication

The bullish article highlights Amgen's obesity narrative, but it overlooks the DeepValue report's caution on valuation and headwinds, meaning immediate upside is limited without MariTide outperforming. MariTide must achieve ≥22% weight loss with low discontinuation rates in Phase 3 to justify current prices, yet payer restrictions and competitor advantages pose significant barriers. Base-business erosion from Prolia/Xgeva biosimilars and IRA price cuts could accelerate, pressuring earnings even if newer assets grow steadily. State Medicaid rollbacks on obesity coverage may shrink the addressable market, disadvantaging Amgen as a late entrant. Therefore, investors should monitor quarterly base-business trends and clinical updates closely, with entry opportunities likely on dips toward $290 rather than at elevated levels.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article reinforces the optimistic market narrative around MariTide but fails to address the critical risks and high valuation detailed in the DeepValue report. Our thesis remains unchanged: Amgen is a 'WAIT' due to unresolved obesity uncertainties and structural headwinds, with no new evidence justifying a shift from caution.