Bullish Article Clashes with DeepValue's Skeptical TMC Assessment

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article published on January 23, 2026, portrays TMC as a compelling deep-sea mining opportunity with a $23.6 billion NPV and an expanding resource base covering nearly 100 years of critical metals supply. It highlights TMC's application to increase commercial recovery areas to 65,000 sq km, targeting manganese, cobalt, nickel, and copper for U.S. supply security, suggesting significant upside versus its current ~$5 billion market cap. However, the DeepValue master report reveals that TMC is pre-revenue with negative equity of -$40.6 million as of Q3 2025, heavy structural encumbrances like a $145 million royalty liability, and relies on untested U.S. and ISA regulatory approvals for commercialization. Critical risks include potential permitting delays from NOAA, intense environmental opposition, and the need for dilutive equity raises to fund operations, which could erode per-share value despite the bullish NPV narrative. Overall, the filings paint a harsher picture than the article, indicating that TMC's current ~$3.1 billion valuation may already discount success while offering little fundamental downside protection.

Implication

The divergence between the article's optimism and the report's skepticism underscores TMC's high-risk, option-like nature, where value hinges entirely on future permits and project execution rather than current fundamentals. With negative equity, no revenue, and cash covering only 2-3 years of burn, TMC faces imminent funding needs that could trigger dilutive equity issuances, further pressuring per-share economics. Near-term catalysts like NOAA exploration license decisions and Korea Zinc offtake progress are critical but uncertain, with a 35% bear case probability implying a $3.50 value if regulatory hurdles intensify. Investors must monitor these milestones closely, as setbacks could quickly unravel sentiment, given the stock's 370% rally in 12 months and crowded, volatile trading narrative. Given the asymmetric risk profile and DeepValue's 'POTENTIAL SELL' rating, a rational stance is to avoid new positions or consider trimming exposure into strength until clearer regulatory and funding evidence emerges.

Thesis delta

The new article does not alter the core investment thesis from the DeepValue report, which remains a 'POTENTIAL SELL' due to structural encumbrances, regulatory uncertainties, and lack of margin of safety. It reinforces the bullish narrative around NPV and resource scale but fails to address critical downside risks like permitting delays, environmental pushback, and dilutive funding that could materially impact valuation. Therefore, no shift in thesis is warranted; instead, the article highlights the propaganda-like optimism that investors should scrutinize against the hard data from filings.