Seeking Alpha's UAMY Buy Call Contrasts Sharply with DeepValue's Strong Sell on Execution and Valuation Risks

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article published on January 24, 2026, rates United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) a buy, emphasizing vertical integration from the Radersburg Flotation Mill acquisition and growth in antimony revenues. However, DeepValue's latest master report issues a strong sell rating with high conviction, pointing to persistent operating losses and negative earnings despite a 182% year-over-year revenue increase in 9M25. The report critically notes that UAMY has recognized no DLA revenue from its $245 million IDIQ contract through Q3 2025, highlighting execution delays and unproven conversion of the contract ceiling into steady orders. High stock-based compensation of $4.69 million in 9M25 and equity-funded capital expenditures are diluting shareholders while the company burns cash, with a net loss of $4.05 million in that period. At a market cap of ~$1.1 billion, UAMY trades at unsustainable multiples like a P/E of -231.8 and P/B of 15.9, pricing in aggressive success scenarios that remain unvalidated by current fundamentals.

Implication

The Seeking Alpha article's optimism is not grounded in the financial realities documented in SEC filings, such as negative EBITDA and reliance on equity issuance for funding, which undermines the buy rating. UAMY's valuation assumes flawless conversion of the DLA IDIQ into revenue and successful cost reductions from expansions like Thompson Falls, but these are high-risk bets given past operational volatility and no DLA revenue yet. Without tangible progress in ore integration and margin improvement, the stock faces significant downside potential, aligning with DeepValue's bear case implied value of $4.75, a 49% decline from current levels. Current holders should consider reducing exposure, as the 6-18 month risk-reward skews negatively, with catalysts like DLA order recognition and cost metrics needing close monitoring in upcoming filings. New investors would be speculating on management's ability to execute, which requires evidence of sustainable profitability and reduced dilution before any position can be justified.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article does not alter the investment thesis; it promotes management's growth narrative without addressing the core financial weaknesses and execution risks highlighted in recent SEC filings. DeepValue's strong sell rating remains intact, as UAMY continues to operate at a loss with high capital intensity and dilution, making the stock overvalued relative to its current performance. Investors should rely on concrete data from quarterly reports rather than optimistic projections to assess the company's trajectory.