Intel Bullish Article Clashes with DeepValue's Critical Financial Reality

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article projects Intel's momentum in 2026 based on advanced 18A processors and AI PC growth, painting a bullish picture. However, the DeepValue master report, drawing from recent SEC filings, reveals that Intel Foundry lost $10.3 billion in 2025 with only $307 million in external revenue, highlighting a lack of commercial traction. Filings indicate persistent 18A yield issues and supply constraints, with Nvidia halting testing and management warning that future node investments depend on securing major external customers. The article's optimism overlooks Intel's reliance on over $20 billion in government and partner funding to approach breakeven, masking underlying profitability challenges. Thus, the bullish narrative is not substantiated by the hard financial and operational data, which points to ongoing execution risks.

Implication

The article's focus on AI PC momentum obscures Intel's core issue: a foundry segment that lost $10.3 billion in 2025, with negligible external revenue, indicating no scaled commercial adoption. Persistent 18A yield and supply constraints could limit AI PC growth, contradicting the article's optimistic projections and delaying any meaningful recovery. Intel's high valuation at negative EPS and significant net debt amplifies downside risk if execution falters, as highlighted in the DeepValue report's bear case. Without securing major external foundry customers, Intel faces potential impairments on its $105 billion PPE base and may need to pivot strategy, undermining equity value. Prudent investors should await concrete evidence of foundry loss reduction and customer wins before assuming a turnaround, as current data does not support the bullish thesis.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article does not shift the DeepValue report's bearish thesis; instead, it underscores the disconnect between optimistic market narratives and the harsh financial realities documented in filings. Intel's turnaround remains contingent on resolving foundry inefficiencies and securing external deals, which are unproven and carry high execution risk.