Novo Nordisk's 2025 Annual Report Confirms Transition Amid GLP-1 Headwinds

What happened

Novo Nordisk published its 2025 annual report on February 4, 2026, detailing a year where the company faced repeated guidance cuts and a 32% stock decline. The report covers a period marked by slowing GLP-1 growth, intensified competition from Eli Lilly, and approximately 9,000 job cuts as management restructured to protect profitability. It likely emphasizes efforts to launch the Wegovy pill and advance higher-dose semaglutide to offset pricing pressure and injectable share loss. Financial metrics in the report will test the base case assumption of 8-11% GLP-1 revenue growth with stable margins. This sets a critical checkpoint for investors assessing whether Novo can stabilize guidance and execute on new products in 2026.

Implication

The 2025 annual report provides finalized data that will confirm or challenge the bearish trends of guidance cuts and margin pressure highlighted in the DeepValue analysis. Key areas to analyze include GLP-1 revenue growth, operating margins, and free cash flow to see if they align with the base case of high-single-digit growth and modest profit expansion. Management's commentary on future guidance and pipeline updates, such as Wegovy pill uptake and CagriSema regulatory progress, will be crucial for assessing confidence in the turnaround strategy. Any deviations, like further deterioration in pricing or market share, could trigger a reassessment towards the bear scenario with implied value around $45. Overall, this report serves as a reality check for the investment thesis, requiring careful analysis beyond optimistic corporate messaging to inform position sizing.

Thesis delta

The publication of the 2025 annual report does not inherently shift the investment thesis but offers concrete data to test the underlying assumptions of stabilized GLP-1 growth and margin defense. If the report shows sustained high-single-digit revenue growth and effective cost management, it reinforces the base case for accumulation at ~$59 with mid-teens upside potential. However, evidence of accelerated price compression or lack of progress on key catalysts would weaken the thesis, shifting focus to the bear case and necessitating reduced exposure.