Analyst Projections Spotlight Key Metrics Ahead of Equinix Q4 Earnings Amid Persistent Execution Risks

What happened

Analyst projections for Equinix's Q4 2025 earnings, released on February 6, 2026, focus on key operational metrics beyond revenue and earnings, signaling heightened scrutiny ahead of the upcoming report. This aligns with the DeepValue report's investment thesis, which emphasizes monitoring bookings, interconnection growth, and capex productivity due to significant execution risks. Equinix's stock at $832.54 carries a 'WAIT' rating, reflecting concerns over power availability delays and high capital commitments that could cap near-term value. Recent filings reveal unaccrued capex commitments surged to ~$6.7 billion by September 2025, and Q3 2025 saw deal closure slippage that forced a revenue outlook cut. The February 11, 2026 earnings call is now a critical catalyst for validating whether these key metrics support 2026 AFFO per share targets and power-secured delivery timelines.

Implication

The analyst projections underscore that Equinix's investment case hinges on converting strong demand into timely revenue, making the upcoming earnings call pivotal for assessing execution. Investors must scrutinize updates on annualized bookings, which were $394 million in Q3 2025, to gauge absorption of the ~$6.7 billion capex pipeline amid power constraints. Any further delays in large campus deal closures or power-secured project energization could derail AFFO growth, reinforcing the bear case of stalled per-share cash flow. The company's elevated leverage and reliance on external financing necessitate close monitoring of capex productivity and potential equity dilution risks. Thus, maintaining a 'WAIT' stance with a re-assessment post-call is prudent, as the stock already prices in execution without proof of improvement.

Thesis delta

The analyst projections do not alter the core 'WAIT' thesis, as they merely preview the data needed to evaluate existing execution and financing risks. However, they highlight the February 11 earnings call as a decisive event for confirming whether key metrics like bookings and power availability are on track to support AFFO growth, potentially shifting the thesis if evidence emerges of improved cadence or reduced delays.