Momentus Announces NASA Partnership Amidst Severe Financial Distress and Going-Concern Warnings

What happened

Momentus Inc. has announced a new Space Act Agreement with NASA to deepen collaboration on in-orbit servicing, including delivering a CubeSat for demonstration of rendezvous and assembly capabilities. This move aligns with the company's strategy to leverage government contracts for its Vigoride platform, as highlighted in prior milestones. However, this positive press release contrasts sharply with the DeepValue report's findings of critical financial distress, including negative equity of $0.7 million and only $0.75 million in revenue for the first nine months of 2025. The report details a reliance on serial dilutive financings from a single investor to offset an annual cash burn exceeding $12 million, with explicit going-concern warnings in SEC filings. Thus, while the NASA partnership may provide minor technical validation, it does little to address the imminent solvency risks or alter the company's survival-dependent trajectory.

Implication

This partnership supports Momentus' bull case driver of stronger government demand, potentially enhancing its credibility for future contracts. However, the financial impact is minimal, as such agreements typically yield small, deferred revenue insufficient to cover the $19.1 million in annual operating expenses. Investors should remain cautious, as the DeepValue report assigns a 55% probability to the bear case where equity nears zero due to funding failures or delisting. The announcement may provide a temporary sentiment lift but is unlikely to alter the probability-weighted valuation skew towards downside. Monitoring should focus on cash positions, financing closures, and Nasdaq compliance rather than contract wins, as survival hinges on external capital rather than operational improvements.

Thesis delta

The NASA partnership slightly bolsters the technology validation aspect of the thesis, aligning with the bull case scenario of government-driven revenue growth. However, it does not change the probability distributions or address the core financial vulnerabilities, such as negative equity and reliance on dilutive financings. Therefore, the strong sell rating and investment thesis remain unchanged, with no material shift in expected outcomes over the next 6-18 months.