Blue Owl's 2026 Conference Presentation Underlines Growth Amid Unresolved Governance Risks

What happened

Blue Owl Capital Inc. presented at the Bank of America Financial Services Conference in 2026, likely reiterating its recent performance and strategic priorities. According to the DeepValue report, OWL has demonstrated robust fundamentals with AUM growing 26% YoY to $295.6B and fee-related earnings up 19% in Q3 2025, yet the stock trades at a discount due to persistent governance and retail-structure concerns. Management's commentary probably emphasized successes in digital infrastructure and private wealth fundraising, which align with the report's growth drivers. However, critical issues like the upcoming OBDC II tender restart and exposure to consumer credit risks remain unaddressed, casting doubt on near-term sentiment. This presentation reinforces the existing narrative without providing new data that materially alters the investment landscape.

Implication

The conference presentation suggests management is optimistic, but it does not mitigate the key risks highlighted in the DeepValue report, such as governance lapses and credit quality. Upcoming events, including the OBDC II tender program restart in Q1 2026 and deployment of $28.4B in non-fee-paying AUM, will be critical for validating fee-related earnings growth. If these execute smoothly, the stock could trend toward the base case value of $19, but failure could trigger a decline toward the bear case of $13. Investors must also monitor consumer credit performance from partnerships like Upstart and SoFi, as any deterioration could undermine dividend sustainability. Therefore, maintaining a measured exposure with close scrutiny of quarterly updates is prudent until clearer signals emerge.

Thesis delta

The conference presentation does not shift the investment thesis; it reaffirms that OWL's strong fundamentals are counterbalanced by governance and credit risks. Investors should continue to evaluate the stock based on the 90-day checkpoints, such as private wealth inflows and OBDC non-accruals, without overreacting to management's promotional tone.