Seeking Alpha Bullish on OWL, But DeepValue Highlights Persistent Governance Risks

What happened

A Seeking Alpha article published on February 12, 2026, argues that Blue Owl Capital's dividend cut fears are already priced in, maintaining a 'Strong Buy' rating and claiming undervaluation even under a pessimistic 25% cut scenario. However, the latest DeepValue master report rates OWL as a 'POTENTIAL BUY' with only moderate conviction, citing a 29% stock decline over 12 months despite AUM growth to $295.6B, driven by governance and retail-structure concerns. The report identifies critical risks, including regulatory backlash from OBDC II's gating issues, potential credit losses in consumer portfolios like Upstart and SoFi, and vulnerability in private wealth fundraising. DeepValue emphasizes that while fundamentals show strong fee-related earnings growth, the stock trades at a discount to peers due to these unresolved issues, not underlying weakness. The new article's optimism contrasts sharply with DeepValue's cautious stance, highlighting the need for investors to scrutinize beyond surface-level valuation claims.

Implication

The Seeking Alpha article suggests Blue Owl's current price already discounts dividend cuts, offering potential upside if fears subside, but this overlooks deeper structural vulnerabilities. DeepValue's analysis points to ongoing governance lapses, such as the aborted OBDC II merger, which could attract regulatory scrutiny and erode retail investor trust. Key near-term catalysts, like the Q1 2026 OBDC II tender restart, will test liquidity management and could exacerbate redemption pressures if mishandled. Investors should also monitor credit quality, as non-accruals exceeding 4% in OBDC or losses in consumer portfolios could trigger dividend cuts and further de-rating. While the stock may appear undervalued on earnings multiples, the high absolute valuation and reliance on flawless execution warrant a measured, risk-aware position rather than aggressive buying.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article introduces an optimistic view that dividend concerns are priced in, but it does not shift DeepValue's core thesis. DeepValue's thesis remains that OWL is a potential buy only if governance risks ease and credit performance holds, with the stock's discount reflecting these persistent issues rather than fundamental deterioration. The new article reinforces the valuation argument but fails to address the deeper structural challenges emphasized in the report, such as retail liquidity mismatches and regulatory exposure.