Bitdeer's Q4 Earnings Reinforce High-Risk Profile Amid Bitcoin and AI Hype

What happened

Bitdeer reported Q4 2025 earnings, with key metrics compared to estimates and prior periods, highlighting ongoing operational trends. The company has rapidly scaled self-mining to over 40 EH/s, boosting revenue but sustaining deeply negative free cash flow and reliance on dilutive financing. Q4 likely saw strong Bitcoin mining performance, yet the AI/HPC segment remains tiny with ARR under $10 million, far from management's optimistic targets. Despite improving margins, financial statements mask risks from convertible debt and equity raises that have triggered stock volatility. Investors must scrutinize beyond propaganda to assess if AI execution or sustainable profitability can justify the current narrative.

Implication

Bitdeer's Q4 earnings confirm it remains a high-beta Bitcoin play with an unproven AI angle, requiring close monitoring of cash flow and dilution events. Near-term, failure to grow AI/HPC ARR above $50 million by end-2026 could lead to a de-rating, while further capital raises may erode shareholder value. The company's aggressive growth strategy depends on converting power assets to AI use at premium rates, but competition from larger players poses execution risks. Long-term, the stock offers limited margin of safety unless AI monetization accelerates significantly or free cash flow turns positive. Until then, the risk-reward favors waiting for a lower entry near $8 or clearer evidence of sustainable economics.

Thesis delta

The Q4 earnings do not shift the 'POTENTIAL SELL' thesis, as they likely reinforce existing trends of operational strength paired with financial fragility and dilution risk. However, any material progress or setback in AI/HPC ARR or capital markets access within the next 6-12 months could prompt a re-evaluation, per the DeepValue report's reassessment window.