Oklo's 34% Monthly Drop Highlights Persistent Risks Beyond Meta Deal

What happened

Oklo's stock has plunged 33.8% in the past month, underscoring investor wariness despite the recent 1.2 GW nuclear campus agreement with Meta. This decline reflects deep-seated concerns about the company's pre-revenue status, lengthy regulatory timelines towards first cash flows in the late 2020s, and ongoing operational losses. The DeepValue master report rates Oklo as a 'POTENTIAL SELL' due to its expensive valuation as a long-dated option, with significant dilution risk from a new $1.5 billion ATM program. Insider selling by founders in early 2026, involving large, synchronized reductions in holdings, adds a cautionary signal about executive confidence. Overall, the price action aligns with the bearish scenario where capital dependence and execution risks outweigh near-term optimism from customer deals.

Implication

The sharp monthly drop indicates a market shift from speculative hype to focusing on Oklo's operational vulnerabilities, such as its pre-revenue model and reliance on equity funding. With no revenue expected until 2028-2030, any slippage in NRC approvals or project execution could trigger further dilution and stock declines, compounding the bearish outlook. Insider selling by founders is a red flag, suggesting they may be capitalizing on high prices rather than betting on future growth, which undermines investor trust. Key catalysts like COLA submissions or new binding PPAs beyond Meta are critical but unlikely to materialize soon, keeping the risk-reward unfavorable. A more attractive entry point would be near the $45 bear scenario valuation, where some risks are priced in, but until then, patience is warranted.

Thesis delta

The core thesis from the DeepValue report remains unchanged: Oklo is overvalued with high execution and dilution risks, warranting a 'POTENTIAL SELL' rating. However, the recent price drop and continued insider selling reinforce this view, suggesting the market is beginning to discount the optimism from the Meta deal. No major shift is warranted unless Oklo demonstrates accelerated regulatory progress or secures additional binding PPAs without excessive dilution.