CorMedix Analyst Day Transcript Illuminates Critical Reimbursement Transition Amid Stock Decline

What happened

CorMedix held its Analyst/Investor Day on February 14, 2026, following a 37% stock drop over the past year due to concerns over DefenCath's looming reimbursement changes. The event focused on detailing DefenCath volume trends and assumptions for the TDAPA to post-TDAPA transition set for July 2026, as highlighted in the DeepValue report. Management likely emphasized resilience and guided to 2026 EBITDA of $100-125m on $300-320m revenue, but investors must critically assess whether this optimism is backed by transparent data or masks underlying risks. This transcript serves as a key checkpoint to verify if DefenCath utilization can withstand pricing pressure and if Melinta's stable contribution offsets volatility. Ultimately, the revelations will determine if CorMedix faces a temporary reimbursement issue or a structural demand problem.

Implication

The Analyst Day provides crucial insights into CorMedix's ability to navigate the H2 2026 reimbursement cliff, with stable volume trends and validated assumptions potentially driving stock recovery towards the base case $11 value. Any vagueness or optimistic spin without hard data would heighten risks around customer retention and CMS policy changes, requiring closer monitoring of upcoming catalysts like the 2025 10-K and ReSPECT data. Investors must maintain cautious position sizing until post-TDAPA results in Q3 2026 confirm durability, and a lack of clear segmentation in the transcript could warrant reduced exposure. The event underscores the binary nature of the thesis, where success hinges on DefenCath's economic attractiveness post-transition and Melinta's steady performance. Failure to address these points transparently may signal deeper issues, aligning with the bear scenario and justifying a more defensive stance.

Thesis delta

If the transcript provides robust data confirming DefenCath volume resilience and realistic reimbursement assumptions, the thesis remains intact with upside potential as per the DeepValue base case. However, if it reveals vagueness or new concerns, the thesis weakens, shifting focus to downside risks and necessitating a re-evaluation of the attractive $7 entry point.