Inventiva's Preliminary 2025 Results Confirm High Cash Burn, Underscoring Binary Risk Ahead of Phase 3 Data

What happened

Inventiva reported preliminary unaudited financial results for fiscal year 2025, highlighting its cash position and operational metrics amid ongoing restructuring. Despite previous workforce reductions and pipeline pruning, operating cash burn likely remained elevated, as indicated by a 20% year-over-year increase in net cash used in operations for the first nine months of 2025. The company continues to rely heavily on external financings, with cash and short-term deposits previously reported at €122.3 million as of September 2025, guiding a runway to end-Q1 2027. This persistence of high non-R&D expenses threatens to shorten the effective cash buffer before the pivotal NATiV3 Phase 3 trial readout in H2 2026, adding pre-data financing risk. Investors must now scrutinize whether management's cost discipline can align with guidance, as the stock remains a leveraged bet on lanifibranor's success in an increasingly competitive MASH landscape.

Implication

For investors, the persistent high cash burn signals that runway guidance to Q1 2027 may be optimistic, increasing the likelihood of another dilutive equity raise before the H2 2026 NATiV3 data, which could further pressure the stock. The lack of margin of safety is stark, with negative equity and reliance on external capital making the company vulnerable to any trial delays or competitive setbacks from established players like Rezdiffra and GLP-1s. In the near term, monitoring FY 2025 detailed results for evidence of cost savings is critical; if burn does not decline, the 'WAIT' rating is justified, with attractive entry points potentially dropping toward cash value near $4.25. Over the next 6-18 months, the investment case hinges entirely on NATiV3 success, but even positive data may not offset dilution from necessary financings or commercial challenges in a crowded market. Thus, maintaining a disciplined, risk-adjusted approach—avoiding new positions until burn discipline is proven or the stock nears cash support—offers the best chance for favorable returns amid this high-stakes binary setup.

Thesis delta

The preliminary 2025 results do not shift the core investment thesis; Inventiva remains a speculative, single-asset bet on NATiV3 success with no fundamental margin of safety. However, if confirmed data shows operating cash burn exceeding expectations, it could accelerate the need for pre-data financing, tightening the risk-reward profile and reinforcing the 'WAIT' rating until clearer cost control or a pullback to $4-5 emerges.