Motley Fool's Bullish MU Article Clashes with DeepValue's Cautious Analysis

What happened

The Motley Fool published an article on February 17, 2026, claiming Micron Technology is a dirt-cheap stock expected to quadruple earnings this year due to AI-driven memory demand from hyperscalers. This aligns with the crowded market narrative that AI workloads are scaling, making memory a bottleneck, as highlighted in DeepValue's report. However, DeepValue's analysis critically notes that MU's current price of $411 already embeds optimistic assumptions about sustained HBM and DRAM pricing power through 2026. SEC filings reveal customers resist long-term fixed-price contracts, with risks of pricing rollovers and a $20 billion FY2026 capex plan dependent on conditional government incentives. Thus, the article's promotional tone overlooks the cyclical risks and high valuation concerns documented in the filings.

Implication

The article reinforces the bullish but crowded narrative on AI memory, yet DeepValue's report shows no margin of safety at MU's high P/E of 38.9x, requiring caution. Micron's near-term success depends on HBM4 shipment validation by 2Q26 and maintaining price-volume agreements for CY2026, which are not guaranteed. Key risks include potential DRAM contract price declines in early 2026 and capex overhangs that could strain cash flow if incentives falter. Waiting for a pullback to $330 or clear confirmation of pricing resilience is prudent to avoid downside from a memory cycle downturn. Blindly following optimistic media claims could lead to significant losses if fundamental risks materialize sooner than expected.

Thesis delta

The Motley Fool article does not shift the core investment thesis, as it merely echoes the prevalent bullish narrative on AI memory demand that DeepValue already accounts for. However, it highlights the narrative risk and the need for investors to critically assess such claims against the hard data in SEC filings regarding pricing flexibility and capex commitments. The thesis remains a 'WAIT' rating, with conviction hinging on observable signals like HBM4 certification and pricing trends in the next 3-6 months.