SEALSQ Reports Preliminary 66% Revenue Growth to $18M in FY2025, But Critical PQC Proof Remains Elusive

What happened

SEALSQ announced preliminary and unaudited FY2025 revenue of $18 million, representing a 66% year-over-year increase, alongside Q1 2026 expectations and reaffirmed FY2026 guidance. This growth occurs during a transition year that DeepValue's report flagged as likely to impair existing business, raising questions about its sustainability and source. The unaudited nature of the metrics, with audited statements not due until March 31, 2026, adds a layer of uncertainty, as filings often present optimistic views. DeepValue's analysis stresses that LAES's valuation depends on converting a $200M-plus pipeline into concrete bookings for post-quantum chips like QS7001/QVault, which this update does not substantiate. While the reaffirmed 2026 guidance aligns with DeepValue's base scenario of $27M-$30M revenue, it lacks breakdowns to confirm if growth is driven by PQC adoption versus legacy demand or one-time factors.

Implication

The 66% revenue jump suggests operational momentum, but without audited validation or details on PQC contribution, it fails to de-risk the investment thesis centered on post-quantum adoption. DeepValue highlights that LAES needs named design-ins or production commitments by mid-2026 to justify its valuation, and this news does not provide that, leaving the stock vulnerable to sentiment swings. Reaffirmed 2026 guidance is a positive signal, yet it must be backed by milestone revenue from projects like the Quantix Edge Spain contract, which has yet to materialize as expected in H1 2026. High customer concentration and reliance on non-committed pipeline, as noted in filings, mean revenue volatility could persist, pressuring margins amid fixed costs. Therefore, while the update may temporarily boost confidence, it does not alter the need for proof of PQC-driven growth to avoid further dilution and support a higher rating.

Thesis delta

The reported growth does not shift the core thesis, as it lacks evidence of PQC product conversion into bookings or milestone revenue from key projects. It may indicate a smoother transition year than feared, but until audited results and specific PQC attribution are disclosed, the thesis remains unchanged, requiring continued monitoring for catalysts like QS7001 design-ins by Q2 2026. Investors should maintain a 'WAIT' stance, as the preliminary nature and unspecified growth drivers do not mitigate the risks of schedule slips or dilution highlighted in DeepValue's report.