Figma Partners with Anthropic on AI Code Integration, Reinforcing AI Bet Amidst Skepticism and Supply Overhang

What happened

Figma announced a partnership with Anthropic to integrate Claude Code, aiming to turn AI-generated code into editable designs within its platform, as reported on Feb 17, 2026. This aligns with Figma's existing 'Make AI building happen inside Figma' strategy, where the DeepValue report notes ~30% of $100k+ ARR customers used Figma Make weekly by end of Sep 2025. The timing is critical, coming just before Figma's FY2025 earnings on Feb 18, 2026, and the subsequent lock-up release of ~44.4M shares, which adds near-term volatility and supply pressure. Market sentiment, per the report, frames AI as a disruption risk that has contributed to software stock sell-offs, with Figma's gross margin already declining to 69% in Q3 2025 due to AI investments. Thus, while this partnership could enhance Figma's AI capabilities, it must be evaluated against persistent margin concerns and the mechanical overhang from upcoming share unlocks.

Implication

The partnership may bolster Figma's workflow entrenchment by embedding AI coding tools, potentially supporting Net Dollar Retention above 130% if adoption accelerates among large customers. However, AI investments have already pressured gross margins, down from 91% to 69% year-over-year, with management warning of unknown long-term economics and fixed commitments of $542.6 million limiting flexibility. Near-term, the stock faces significant supply headwinds from the lock-up release starting two trading days after earnings, which could dominate price action regardless of product news. Investors should closely monitor FY2025 results for updated AI traction metrics, such as Make usage penetration, to gauge whether this partnership translates into measurable expansion or merely adds cost. Overall, while strategically aligned, this move does not alter the fundamental recommendation to wait for post-unlock normalization and clearer margin stabilization before considering an entry.

Thesis delta

The core thesis of maintaining a 'WAIT' rating for 3-6 months remains unchanged, as this partnership is consistent with Figma's documented AI roadmap and does not address the key overhang from share supply or margin pressures. However, it emphasizes the need to watch for concrete improvements in AI adoption metrics, such as weekly Make usage or NDR, in upcoming earnings to validate the 'AI expands workflows' counter-narrative. No material shift in valuation or conviction is justified until financial impacts are disclosed, and the stock proves it can absorb the impending unlock without deterioration in expansion economics.