Motley Fool Touts Vertiv as AI Steal, But DeepValue Report Urges Caution Amid Risks

What happened

The Motley Fool published an article on February 18, 2026, highlighting Vertiv as a potential AI stock steal due to booming infrastructure investment driving revenue growth over the next three years. This optimism aligns with Vertiv's recent strong operational momentum, including a Q4 2025 book-to-bill of 2.9x and a backlog of $15.0 billion, as detailed in the DeepValue report. However, the report critically notes that this backlog is subject to cancellation or deferral, and the company plans a capex ramp to $425-$525 million in 2026, amplifying downside risk if hyperscaler demand shifts. Market sentiment is crowded around the AI narrative, yet valuations are extended at 67.3x P/E and 40.0x EV/EBITDA, leaving little margin for error in execution. Thus, while the AI tailwind is real, investors must weigh the promotional hype against the explicit risks outlined in SEC filings before making investment decisions.

Implication

The Motley Fool article reinforces the market's bullish view on Vertiv's AI-driven growth, but it fails to address the critical risks highlighted in the DeepValue report, such as the cancellable nature of the $15.0 billion backlog and the increased capex intensity. With high valuations embedding perfection, any deviation from the FY2026 sales guide of $13.25B-$13.75B or margin target of ~22.5% could trigger sharp downside, as the stock lacks a margin of safety. The DeepValue report maintains a 'WAIT' rating with an attractive entry at $180, advising investors to seek confirmation through Q1 2026 margin prints and sustained hyperscaler capex signals over the next 6-12 months. Key monitoring points include potential deferrals or cancellations in backlog and the execution of the PurgeRite integration for liquid cooling services, which are not quantified in the article. Therefore, investors should avoid chasing the hype and instead prioritize risk management by awaiting tangible proof of resilient performance amid the capex ramp and demand volatility.

Thesis delta

The Motley Fool article amplifies the market's optimistic narrative around Vertiv as a core AI infrastructure play, but it does not introduce new fundamental data or alter the DeepValue report's cautious thesis. The investment call remains unchanged: wait for de-risking through confirmed backlog conversion and margin delivery before considering an entry, given the asymmetric risks and high valuation.