Figma Announces Strong FY2025 Results, But Share Unlock and Metric Scrutiny Loom

What happened

Figma released its fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 financial results on February 18, 2026, with CEO Dylan Field touting accelerated revenue and customer growth as evidence of the company's essential role in product development. The press release emphasizes a 'massive year' and the best quarter yet, likely aligning with prior guidance of $1.044-$1.046 billion in revenue and around 40% growth. However, beyond this optimistic framing, the DeepValue report highlights that real sustainability depends on key operational metrics like Net Dollar Retention (NDR) for $10k+ ARR customers and gross margin stability, which were at 131% and 69% respectively in Q3 2025. Crucially, this earnings announcement mechanically triggers an extended lock-up release of approximately 44.4 million shares two trading days later, introducing significant supply overhang that could pressure the stock irrespective of fundamentals. Investors must now parse the detailed results to see if NDR held above 130%, gross margin stabilized near 70%, and AI traction metrics like weekly Figma Make usage in large accounts remained robust, all while navigating post-unlock volatility.

Implication

The announcement's upbeat tone may briefly lift sentiment, but without concrete data on NDR and margins, any optimism is premature and risks overlooking deeper structural issues. The impending share unlock of ~44.4 million shares adds immediate mechanical selling pressure, likely capping near-term upside even if results are solid, as highlighted in the DeepValue report. If the detailed results show NDR ≥130% and gross margin stabilization, it could validate the expansion narrative and support a re-rating once supply is absorbed, aligning with the report's base scenario. However, any slippage in these metrics—such as NDR falling or margin compression from AI costs—would amplify bearish concerns about procurement friction and competitive threats, potentially driving the stock toward the report's bear case of $14. Therefore, prudence dictates awaiting the next 3-6 months for clarity on post-unlock volume, refreshed AI adoption data, and consistent metric performance before considering an entry, reinforcing the report's 'WAIT' rating.

Thesis delta

The announcement itself does not materially shift the investment thesis, which remains contingent on the detailed financials confirming or denying key thresholds like NDR ≥130% and gross margin stabilization. If results meet these criteria, the 'WAIT' rating could be upgraded post-unlock; however, any shortfall would intensify downside risks around supply overhang and margin erosion, keeping the thesis unchanged until further evidence emerges.