TMC's Permitting Hurdles Highlight Investor Risks Amid Speculative Optimism

What happened

TMC is advancing its U.S. deep-sea mining permit applications under NOAA's new consolidated process, aiming to be the first commercial recovery under DSHMRA. The company remains pre-revenue with an accumulated deficit of $910.9 million and relies entirely on regulatory success for future income. DeepValue's report identifies critical milestones, including NEPA EIS initiation by August 2026, to validate the permitting timeline and avoid dilution. The Motley Fool article echoes these concerns, emphasizing the many unknowns and speculative nature of the stock. Investors must watch for NOAA's procedural progress and binding agreements with Allseas to assess viability.

Implication

TMC's stock price at $6.18 embeds optimistic assumptions about permitting speed, but the disclosed NOAA process has no statutory deadline and faces legal challenges. Continued cash burn without revenue increases the likelihood of equity dilution if timelines extend, pressuring the share price. Key near-term catalysts, such as NEPA EIS scoping and consolidated processing confirmation, must materialize to support the base case valuation of $6.50. Failure to achieve these by mid-2026 could drive the stock towards the bear scenario value of $4.00, highlighting asymmetric downside. Therefore, the 'WAIT' rating is justified, with entry considerations only after observable regulatory throughput reduces binary risks.

Thesis delta

The new article from The Motley Fool does not alter the investment thesis; it merely reiterates the high uncertainty and speculative risks already detailed in the DeepValue report. Consequently, the recommendation remains to wait for NEPA EIS initiation and clear application of NOAA's consolidated process before reassessing.