Ford's EV Losses Hit $16B Since 2022, 2027 Push Extends Cash Burn Timeline

What happened

Ford has accumulated over $16 billion in losses on its EV business since 2022, as recent news highlights the scale of its strategic missteps. The DeepValue report details that Ford Model e lost $4.8 billion in EBIT for 2025 alone, with an additional $8.4 billion pre-tax impairment signaling deep structural issues. Management's next major EV initiative is now pushed to 2027, indicating a prolonged turnaround and continued cash drain. Concurrently, Ford faces persistent headwinds from tariff volatility, operational disruptions, and reliance on Ford Pro to anchor profits. Despite 2026 guidance targeting reduced EV losses, the stock remains a 'WAIT' due to near-term execution and policy risks.

Implication

The $16 billion cumulative EV loss underscores the severe capital destruction from Ford's prior strategy, demanding future investments with uncertain returns. The delayed 2027 EV push extends the period of cash burn, delaying any meaningful profitability in the segment. Ford Pro's role as the profit anchor is critical but vulnerable to fleet pricing pressures and tariff swings, as seen in 2025. Tariff uncertainties and warranty overhangs add layers of risk that could easily derail guided free cash flow improvements. Consequently, the investment case hinges on flawless execution amid external shocks, reinforcing the prudent 'WAIT' rating for now.

Thesis delta

The article's emphasis on cumulative EV losses and the 2027 timeline aligns with and reinforces the DeepValue report's view of prolonged cash burn and execution risks. No material shift in the investment thesis is warranted; it remains centered on Ford's ability to hit 2026 guidance while managing policy volatility. Investors should continue monitoring Q1 2026 results for evidence of tariff cost reductions and EV loss containment as key catalysts.