Tesla Touts FSD Safety Data Ahead of Critical NHTSA Probe Deadline

What happened

Tesla has publicly disclosed that its Supervised Full Self-Driving technology has driven over 8.2 billion miles with seven times fewer major collisions, as reported by Benzinga on February 19, 2026. This announcement strategically precedes the February 23, 2026, deadline for Tesla's response to an ongoing NHTSA safety probe into FSD, identified in the DeepValue master report as a key downside catalyst. The DeepValue report rates TSLA as a POTENTIAL SELL, emphasizing deteriorating automotive fundamentals, a bloated valuation, and significant risks from the impending regulatory scrutiny and planned 2026 capex exceeding $20 billion. While the safety data aims to reinforce the AI narrative, the report critically notes that observable progress in Robotaxi scaling and monetization is essential to justify the current stock price, which embeds optimistic autonomy milestones. Thus, this news serves as a defensive maneuver to mitigate regulatory pressure but does not address core investment concerns of margin compression and funding needs highlighted in the filings.

Implication

Investors should interpret Tesla's safety data with caution, as it is self-reported and lacks independent verification, aligning with the DeepValue report's skepticism towards promotional disclosures. The NHTSA probe response due on February 23, 2026, remains a critical near-term event that could impose constraints on FSD rollout, directly challenging the Robotaxi narrative. According to the report, Tesla must demonstrate Robotaxi expansion beyond Austin with reduced supervision by Q2-2026 to avoid a downward re-rating of its AI premium. Furthermore, the company's guidance for 2026 capex over $20 billion, potentially exceeding operating cash flow, underscores funding risks that are unrelated to FSD mileage claims. Therefore, this news reinforces the need for investors to monitor concrete operational milestones rather than being swayed by incremental safety statistics.

Thesis delta

The release of FSD safety data does not materially shift the investment thesis; the DeepValue report's POTENTIAL SELL rating remains justified based on unresolved regulatory risks, weak auto margins, and the high capital expenditure outlook. Any upside would require observable Robotaxi scaling and NHTSA clearance, which are not assured by this announcement.