SoFi's Record Q4 Growth Aligns with Thesis, But Underlying Risks Persist

What happened

SoFi Technologies reported exceptional revenue and adjusted net income growth in Q4 2025, adding a record 1 million customers as highlighted in a bullish Motley Fool article. This performance supports the company's FY2026 guidance of ~$4.655 billion in revenue and ~$1.6 billion in adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing the growth narrative from the DeepValue report. However, filings reveal that SoFi's fee-based revenue, especially from the Loan Platform Business, remains tied to volatile capital markets and loan-sale pricing, not the stable software-like income often portrayed. The report also warns of deposit instability risks from negative publicity and dilution from a recent $1.5 billion equity offering, which could undermine per-share value. With the stock priced at $19.51, expectations are high, requiring flawless execution to justify upside while navigating these embedded vulnerabilities.

Implication

SoFi's Q4 results validate near-term momentum, but investors must scrutinize whether fee-based revenue growth can sustain without reliance on favorable loan-sale terms, which are market-sensitive. The 30%+ annual member growth target must hold through 2026 to support cross-sell and operating leverage, with Q1'26 results serving as a key checkpoint. Deposit stability is essential for funding advantages, yet the disclosed risk of rapid withdrawals adds a fragility that contrasts with bullish narratives. Dilution from past equity raises and potential future issuances, coupled with convertible notes due in 2026, could erode per-share compounding if not offset by earnings. Overall, the investment case hinges on SoFi proving its platform durability and capital efficiency in the face of these headwinds.

Thesis delta

The news confirms SoFi's growth trajectory, aligning with the base scenario in the DeepValue report, but does not change the fundamental risks of deposit outflows, technology platform client churn, or dilution. Investors should maintain a cautious 'potential buy' stance, focusing on quarterly validation of guidance rather than assuming a shift to a lower-risk profile.