Novo Nordisk's Bullish Spin Conflicts with Disclosed Share Losses and Defensive Guidance

What happened

Novo Nordisk launched its oral Wegovy pill in Q1 2026 to broaden access and counter sales pressure, yet SEC filings reveal the company lost GLP-1 volume share and U.S. prescription leadership in 2025 due to intensified competition. Management's FY2026 guidance projects adjusted sales to decline -5% to -13% at CER, explicitly citing net price compression from rebates and payer consolidation as headwinds. A Seeking Alpha article frames Novo as a 'Strong Buy' trading at a discount, but this optimism glosses over the disclosed fundamental deterioration in market position and pricing power. The DeepValue report maintains a 'WAIT' rating, emphasizing that the stock's optical cheapness masks risks like the one-time $4.2B 340B accounting benefit and ongoing capex demands. Investors face a critical juncture where oral Wegovy's execution must prove it can offset share erosion and price declines before any sustainable recovery.

Implication

The bullish article overlooks Novo's disclosed market share losses and defensive guidance, which indicate competitive pressures are more structural than temporary. Oral Wegovy's launch is pivotal, but past supply issues and the shift to cash-pay channels heighten execution risks amid a price war. Net price compression from rebates and looming Medicare negotiations could further squeeze margins, undermining sales growth despite category expansion. The Q1 2026 340B accounting benefit distorts earnings, requiring careful normalization to assess true underlying performance free from one-time boosts. Therefore, a wait-and-see approach is prudent, with key catalysts including oral Wegovy ramp-up and clarity on pricing trends over the next two quarters.

Thesis delta

The Seeking Alpha article promotes a long-term buying opportunity based on Novo's moat and pipeline, but the DeepValue report highlights immediate red flags from lost share and guidance cuts, shifting the thesis from optimism to caution. Investors must now prioritize proof of oral Wegovy's execution and stable pricing over narrative-driven discounts, as filings reveal underlying weaknesses not captured in the bullish propaganda.