eBay's Q4 Earnings Beat Underscores Depop's Strategic Fit Amid Looming Customs Risks

What happened

eBay reported a strong Q4 2025 earnings beat, driving a 3.8% share price increase as highlighted in a new article. The article argues that the Depop acquisition holds greater long-term significance than the quarterly earnings, emphasizing its role in bolstering eBay's recommerce and enthusiast fashion verticals. This aligns with the DeepValue report's focus on category-specific growth, where initiatives like AI tools and advertising are key drivers. However, DeepValue cautions that nearly half of eBay's GMV is international and faces structural headwinds from impending U.S. and EU customs changes starting in 2026. Thus, while Depop supports strategic positioning, it does not mitigate the broader policy risks that underpin the current WAIT rating.

Implication

The Depop acquisition reinforces eBay's shift toward higher-value enthusiast categories, such as luxury fashion, which could sustain GMV growth and ad monetization. This supports the bull case where focus categories and AI-driven conversion offset competitive pressures. However, DeepValue's analysis shows that customs changes threaten low-value cross-border trade, a key vulnerability given eBay's 49% international GMV mix. With the stock at $91, valuation already prices in mid-single-digit growth and high-20s margins, leaving asymmetric downside if policy impacts materialize. Consequently, maintaining a cautious stance with an attractive entry near $80 is warranted until clearer evidence emerges on how focus categories absorb customs headwinds.

Thesis delta

The article reinforces the importance of eBay's focus category strategy, with Depop enhancing its recommerce vertical, but it does not alter the core investment thesis. Customs risks and valuation constraints remain unchanged, keeping the WAIT rating and conviction level stable. Investors should monitor whether Depop's integration meaningfully offsets upcoming policy shocks before considering a more bullish stance.