Invivyd's Variant-Agnostic Protection Study Adds Scientific Credibility, But Commercial Hurdles Loom Large

What happened

Invivyd published a peer-reviewed analysis demonstrating a variant-agnostic correlate of protection for its monoclonal antibody pemivibart, based on data from the CANOPY pivotal trial. This builds on earlier findings and aims to support clinical decision-making and regulatory pathways for COVID-19 antibodies. However, the DeepValue report highlights that Invivyd's commercial performance has been disappointing, with 2024 revenue of approximately $25 million falling far short of the $150-200 million target. The EUA for PEMGARDA is contingent on variant susceptibility thresholds and faces direct competition from AstraZeneca's advancing sipavibart. While this publication may bolster scientific confidence, it does not address the core execution risks or competitive pressures that define the current investment case.

Implication

The variant-agnostic correlate could enable faster updates to antibodies via immunobridging, potentially streamlining regulatory approvals and supporting long-term strategy. It validates Invivyd's approach to variant surveillance and antibody design, strengthening the scientific foundation for its moat. Nonetheless, revenue growth depends on improving infusion network access and overcoming market adoption barriers that have hampered sales, as seen in the 2024 shortfall. AstraZeneca's sipavibart poses a significant competitive risk with potential advantages in dosing and durability, which could pressure PEMGARDA's adoption. Therefore, investors should remain focused on EUA susceptibility status, quarterly revenue trends, and competitive developments as outlined in the report.

Thesis delta

The publication does not materially shift the investment thesis; it reinforces the scientific moat but leaves key commercial and competitive risks unchanged. The HOLD rating remains justified pending proof of sustainable revenue growth or reduced susceptibility threats, as the core execution and competitive dynamics are unaffected.