NioCorp's $100M Equity Raise Intensifies Dilution Risks Amid Unresolved EXIM Financing

What happened

NioCorp announced a $100 million public offering of common shares, continuing its reliance on equity markets to fund the Elk Creek critical minerals project. This move follows over $370 million raised in 2025, which has already inflated the share count from 26.6 million in 2022 to approximately 77.7 million by early 2026, underscoring persistent dilution. The DeepValue report rates the stock as a 'POTENTIAL SELL' due to high execution risk and dependence on uncertain EXIM financing, with warnings that share count rises above 30% within twelve months could further weaken the investment case. Management has explicitly cited going-concern risks and the need for significant additional capital, making this offering a necessary but dilutive step to support pre-construction activities like the $44.6 million mine portal. Despite a 233% share price surge over the past year, this equity raise highlights NioCorp's ongoing vulnerability to capital market access rather than secured project finance or binding offtakes.

Implication

This equity raise will further increase the outstanding share count, diluting existing shareholders and reducing the potential upside per share from Elk Creek's projected NPV, which remains contingent on uncertain financing. It signals that NioCorp has not yet secured the large-scale EXIM debt or binding offtakes needed for full project funding, raising concerns about the timeline and terms of future capital raises amid competitive policy capital. Investors must closely monitor share count growth and EXIM progress, as excessive dilution without corresponding de-risking could trigger a reassessment of valuation, aligning with the bear case where equity reliance extends pre-construction limbo. The fresh capital provides short-term runway for the mine portal project but does not address core risks like capex overruns or shifts in U.S. policy support, which are critical for long-term success. Overall, this move underscores the need for cautious positioning, as continued equity dependence without financing milestones could compress risk-adjusted returns and validate the DeepValue report's sell recommendation.

Thesis delta

The $100 million offering does not fundamentally alter the investment thesis but increases dilution risk, shifting the probability weight slightly towards the bear scenario where share count rises impair per-share value. It reinforces the critical need for investors to track equity issuance against EXIM progress and offtake agreements, with further raises without de-risking likely degrading the equity story. This event highlights the ongoing tension between capital requirements and shareholder dilution, emphasizing that the thesis remains fragile until binding financing is secured.