Joby's FAA Certification Hype Confronts Reality of Delays and Financial Strain

What happened

A recent article optimistically predicts Joby's stock will soar over the next decade, citing its near-term FAA-type certification as a key first-mover advantage. However, the latest DeepValue report reveals that FAA type inspection authorization flight tests are now expected to begin only in 2026, delaying meaningful commercial service well beyond initial projections. Joby remains deeply pre-commercial, with nine-month 2025 revenue of just $22.6 million against a net loss of $808 million, underscoring its reliance on external funding. Persistent cash burn of over $100 million per quarter and high execution risks in certification, production, and market adoption further cloud the growth narrative. Despite strategic partnerships and technological leadership, the company's path to profitability is elongated and fraught with regulatory and financial uncertainties.

Implication

The article's bullish outlook on FAA certification ignores the updated timeline pushing TIA flight tests to 2026, which extends the wait for commercial revenue and increases funding needs. Joby's negative free cash flow and high cash burn necessitate further capital raises, likely diluting shareholders and straining balance sheet health. Execution risks in scaling manufacturing, securing vertiport infrastructure, and achieving public acceptance add layers of uncertainty that could erode any first-mover advantage. With a market cap of nearly $10 billion and no near-term profitability, the stock's valuation appears disconnected from current fundamentals, relying on speculative long-term outcomes. Therefore, investors are better off monitoring concrete milestones like certification progress and defense contract conversions before considering any aggressive positions.

Thesis delta

The new article suggests a positive shift due to Joby's proximity to FAA certification, but the master report indicates no material improvement—timelines have slipped, financial losses persist, and risks remain elevated. This reinforces the existing thesis that Joby is a high-risk, binary bet on an unproven market, warranting a wait-and-see approach rather than a bullish stance.