Gilead Acquires Arcellx at $115/Share, Delivering Premium Exit Above Prior Valuations

What happened

Gilead Sciences agreed to acquire Arcellx for $115 per share in cash, a $7.8 billion deal announced on February 25, 2026, following Arcellx's recent clinical data for its lead CAR-T therapy, anito-cel, in multiple myeloma. This acquisition materializes amidst Arcellx's pending BLA submission and high market expectations, as detailed in the DeepValue report, which highlighted regulatory risks and a crowded bullish sentiment. The $115 price significantly exceeds the report's base case valuation of $75 and bull case of $110, offering a premium that captures much of the anticipated upside from approval and launch. For shareholders, this provides a certain exit above recent trading levels around $68, eliminating binary risks tied to FDA review, safety durability, and competitive dynamics. However, it also caps potential future gains from pipeline assets like earlier-line expansions or the ARC-SparX platform, which were part of Arcellx's long-term optionality.

Implication

The acquisition validates anito-cel's clinical promise but transfers all commercial upside and risks to Gilead, removing shareholders from potential post-approval gains. It directly addresses key uncertainties from the DeepValue report, such as BLA filing delays, safety concerns versus Carvykti, and partner dependence, offering a clean exit above most analyst targets. Investors no longer need to monitor regulatory milestones, cash burn trends, or competitive share shifts, reducing speculative biotech exposure. Accepting the offer locks in returns that surpass the report's attractive entry point of $55, but forgoes any value from pipeline diversification or earlier-line label expansions. From a portfolio perspective, this event allows capital reallocation away from binary outcomes, though it may signal overpayment by Gilead given Arcellx's pre-revenue status and unproven durability.

Thesis delta

The acquisition fundamentally invalidates the previous 'WAIT' thesis, which centered on regulatory visibility and a pullback to $55, by providing a definitive exit at $115 per share. All prior concerns about BLA timing, durability data gaps, and single-asset concentration are now moot, as Gilead assumes full control and risk. Investors should pivot to evaluating the tender offer's fairness relative to their cost basis and the slim chance of competing bids, rather than awaiting clinical or regulatory catalysts.