BioCryst's 2025 Results Confirm Orladeyo Growth Amid Leveraged HAE Bet

What happened

BioCryst reported full-year 2025 financial results, with Orladeyo net revenue reaching $601.8 million, a 38% year-over-year increase that adjusts to 43% excluding the European business sale in October 2025. This growth underscores the sustained demand for Orladeyo as the only oral prophylactic for hereditary angioedema (HAE), aligning with the DeepValue report's base case of continued penetration and pediatric expansion. However, the company's heavy reliance on Orladeyo is now compounded by net debt of $736 million and an interest coverage ratio of only 0.85, following the Astria acquisition to build an HAE franchise. The results validate management's execution but do not mitigate the competitive and financial risks highlighted in the report, such as payer pressure and navenibart's Phase 3 execution. Investors must now watch for whether 2026 guidance sustains this momentum while managing increased leverage and integration costs.

Implication

The revenue beat reinforces BioCryst's ability to drive Orladeyo adoption, supporting the base case of ~$725 million revenue by 2027. However, the European divestiture reduces geographic diversification and may limit future growth, emphasizing the U.S. concentration risk. With net debt at $736 million and EV/EBITDA over 150x, financial flexibility is thin, making the equity vulnerable to any growth slowdown or interest rate shocks. Key near-term catalysts include pediatric uptake and navenibart's Phase 3 progress, which must deliver to justify the leveraged bet on an HAE franchise. Investors should prioritize monitoring quarterly growth rates and non-GAAP profitability to assess if the company can service debt while funding pipeline development.

Thesis delta

The 2025 results confirm the DeepValue report's expectation of Orladeyo growth, but do not alter the core thesis to wait for a better entry or clearer proof of sustainability. Risks from leverage, competition, and navenibart execution remain unchanged, keeping the rating at 'WAIT' with conviction dependent on future guidance and margin trends.