D-Wave Reports 2025 Growth but Lacks Crucial Contract Visibility Data

What happened

D-Wave Quantum Inc. announced its fourth quarter and year-end 2025 financial results, claiming transformative growth across revenue and bookings metrics. The company's press release portrays this as a successful year, suggesting accelerating commercial traction in its quantum computing-as-a-service (QCaaS) and system deployments. However, the DeepValue master report highlights that as of September 30, 2025, contracted visibility was alarmingly low, with remaining performance obligations (RPO) at $2.9 million and current deferred revenue at $3.4 million, down significantly from prior periods. Without specific figures from the latest results to show improvement in RPO and deferred revenue, the reported growth may reflect headline deals rather than sustainable, billable contracts. Investors must await detailed SEC filings to verify if the announced $10 million Fortune 100 QCaaS agreement and other bookings have translated into measurable financial progress.

Implication

D-Wave's reported growth in 2025 could indicate rising enterprise interest, but the absence of updated RPO and deferred revenue data means key commercialization risks remain unresolved. If the growth stems from one-off deals or short-term bookings, it may not justify the stock's valuation, which prices in rapid scaling from current low revenue bases. The DeepValue report's thesis requires a material rebound in contracted visibility by mid-2026, and this news fails to provide evidence of such inflection. Investors should closely monitor the next quarterly filing for RPO and deferred revenue figures to assess if headline agreements are converting into recurring billings. Without concrete improvements, the stock faces downside from valuation compression and potential dilution, as cash burn continues and the Quantum Circuits acquisition consumes resources.

Thesis delta

The investment thesis from the DeepValue report remains unchanged, as the news lacks the specific contract visibility data needed to confirm a step-change in commercialization. Any potential shift depends on future disclosures showing RPO and deferred revenue rising significantly from the September 2025 baselines of $2.9 million and $3.4 million. Therefore, the 'WAIT' rating and cautious approach are still warranted until detailed financials validate the reported growth.