Intuit Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates, FY26 Outlook Steady Amid AI Growth and Mailchimp Concerns

What happened

Intuit reported fiscal Q2 earnings that surpassed analyst estimates, with EPS and revenues beating expectations. Segment revenues rose double digits, driven by strength in QuickBooks and Credit Karma, highlighting core business momentum. Management reaffirmed the full-year FY26 outlook, projecting double-digit revenue growth and continued margin expansion. However, the DeepValue report cautions that persistent risks, including Mailchimp's underperformance and elevated unallocated corporate expenses from AI investments, could temper long-term gains. Investors should critically evaluate whether this beat reflects durable growth or masks inefficiencies in cost allocation and execution.

Implication

For investors, the Q2 beat reinforces near-term expectations and may bolster sentiment around Intuit's AI-driven growth strategy. However, it does not resolve structural risks such as Mailchimp's drag on GBS growth and the opacity of unallocated corporate expenses, which could pressure margins if AI investments fail to yield returns. In the short term, the stock may see support, but long-term upside hinges on successful execution of AI monetization and cost discipline, as highlighted in the DeepValue report. Investors should focus on upcoming catalysts, like the OpenAI integration and tax season results, for evidence of sustained ARPC uplift and margin expansion. Maintaining a cautious position is prudent until clearer signs emerge that AI spend is accretive rather than dilutive to earnings.

Thesis delta

The Q2 earnings beat and reaffirmed FY26 guidance align with the DeepValue report's base case of mid-teens GBS growth and stable Credit Karma performance, supporting the POTENTIAL BUY rating. No material shift in the thesis is warranted, as key downgrade triggers—such as GBS growth below 13% or Credit Karma deceleration—remain unchanged, and risks from Mailchimp and AI costs persist. This update reinforces the need for continued scrutiny on execution rather than altering the core investment stance.