Avino's CEO Touts Triple-Asset Growth Amid DeepValue's Sell Warning on Overvaluation

What happened

Avino Silver & Gold Mines' CEO recently highlighted an organic growth strategy in a promotional video, targeting expansion from one to three producing assets led by the higher-grade La Preciosa project. However, the latest DeepValue master report rates Avino as a 'POTENTIAL SELL' with a conviction of 4.0, citing extreme valuation multiples of 72x P/E and 86x EV/EBITDA at a $10.36 share price. The report underscores that this valuation fully embeds record silver prices and unproven ramps from La Preciosa and the Oxide Tailings project, with production flat at 2.6M AgEq oz in 2024-2025. Despite the upbeat news, underlying risks like silver price mean-reversion toward $60-75/oz and execution delays remain critical, as La Preciosa is still in development with NI 43-101 technical work rather than U.S. reserve standards. This CEO clip reflects a narrative shift to momentum storytelling, but it does not address the thin margin of safety or the active F-10 shelf signaling potential equity dilution.

Implication

The CEO's emphasis on multi-asset growth reinforces market optimism but fails to alleviate DeepValue's concerns about valuation, with the stock trading above the $8.00 base case implied value and requiring flawless execution for upside. Key implications include monitoring for 2026 production guidance with explicit La Preciosa assumptions, as any miss or delay could compress multiples sharply given the crowded sentiment. Silver price volatility remains a dominant risk, as a reversion to consensus levels would erode margins and challenge self-funded growth, potentially triggering equity issuance under the F-10 shelf. Investors should prioritize risk management by trimming above $12.00 or waiting for a pullback toward the $7.00 attractive entry point, as the news does not justify a thesis change. Overall, this video serves as promotional propaganda rather than substantive progress, warranting continued caution until operational milestones and financial discipline are demonstrated.

Thesis delta

The new promotional article does not shift the investment thesis; Avino remains overvalued with execution risks at La Preciosa and Oxide Tailings, and the CEO's growth targets are already priced in. DeepValue's 'POTENTIAL SELL' rating holds unless management issues 2026 guidance with ≥20% AgEq growth and commits to no equity issuance, which this news does not provide. Investors should maintain a skeptical stance, as the narrative emphasizes momentum over fundamental improvements.