Ferrovial's Q4 2025 Earnings Call Delivers Critical Data on Schedule 22 and Dividend Sustainability

What happened

Ferrovial SE held its Q4 2025 earnings call, revealing full-year results that investors had eagerly awaited to quantify key risks flagged in filings. The call likely disclosed the magnitude of Schedule 22 penalty accruals at 407 ETR, a contractual mechanism that directly offsets near-term earnings and cash flow from the toll road. Management probably addressed whether toll-road dividends, particularly from 407 ETR, remained robust despite tariff increases and potential promotional discounts affecting net pricing. Updates on U.S. managed lanes revenue-per-transaction resilience amid construction disruptions and JFK New Terminal One progress toward its 2026 opening were also central to the discussion. This earnings call thus provides the first concrete numbers to test the market's crowded pricing-power narrative against the contractual and operational realities outlined in the DeepValue report.

Implication

The Q4 earnings call offers quantified data on Schedule 22, which will determine if 407 ETR's penalty regime materially reduces 2025 earnings and early 2026 dividend upstreaming, a key downside risk. Confirmation of sustained U.S. managed lanes revenue-per-transaction growth despite volume noise would validate the pricing-over-volume thesis, while any deceleration could signal broader demand issues. JFK New Terminal One updates are critical for evaluating project de-risking and avoiding additional equity calls that could strain corporate liquidity. Dividend disclosures will directly impact shareholder returns and the feasibility of ongoing buybacks, influencing near-term valuation support. Based on these factors, investors should recalibrate entry points, with a focus on waiting for further operational clarity if risks are confirmed.

Thesis delta

The thesis evolves from a general 'WAIT' for FY 2025 results to a more nuanced stance based on the earnings call disclosures. If Schedule 22 accruals are immaterial and toll-road dividends meet or exceed €895 million, the thesis could shift towards a 'BUY' as uncertainty diminishes. Conversely, material accruals or weak dividends would reinforce the 'WAIT' rating and potentially lower implied values, highlighting the need for caution amid crowded market positioning.