Kaspi.kz's FY 2025 Results Confirm Growth but Amplify FY26 Headwinds

What happened

Kaspi.kz announced its unaudited FY 2025 financial results, likely showing revenue and net income growth that aligns with historical trends but masks emerging pressures. The DeepValue report highlights that FY26 introduces significant drags from Kazakhstan's 18% base rate, guided to hold through mid-2026, and a new Tax Code raising bank corporate income tax to 25% and VAT to 16% effective January 2026. While the press release may emphasize operational strength, the report warns of capital intensity, with 9M 2025 data showing loan growth and Turkey expansion absorbing cash flow and increasing inventory and goodwill risks. This news underscores that the core model remains robust, but profitability is increasingly vulnerable to regulatory and macro shifts that management cannot fully control. Investors should view FY 2025 as a backward-looking snapshot, with the real test being FY26's ability to pass through taxes and manage Turkey's capital demands without eroding margins.

Implication

Kaspi.kz's FY 2025 announcement confirms ongoing growth but fails to address the critical FY26 headwinds, leaving investors exposed to potential margin compression from tax and rate pressures. The DeepValue report's WAIT stance is justified, as the stock's cheap valuation (6.3x P/E) offers little protection against declining profitability if tax pass-through fails or Turkey absorbs more capital. Investors must monitor FY26 quarterly results for evidence that advertising and marketplace monetization can offset regulatory costs without damaging engagement. Turkey remains a wildcard, with inventory and goodwill spikes in 9M 2025 signaling higher balance-sheet risk that could trigger capital calls or impairments. Overall, this news reinforces a cautious approach, with entry points better aligned to the $65 attractive level only after clearer signs of FY26 resilience emerge.

Thesis delta

The investment thesis remains unchanged; FY 2025 results are consistent with expectations but do not alter the forward-looking risks. The key shift depends on FY26 outcomes: if margins stabilize despite tax hikes and Turkey capital needs stay bounded, the call could upgrade, but current data lacks such confirmation. No delta until subsequent reports provide concrete evidence of tax pass-through or Turkey discipline, per the DeepValue report's criteria.