Reblozyl Hits $2.3B Annual Sales Amid BMY's Portfolio Transition

What happened

Recent data shows Reblozyl has reached over $2.3 billion in annualized sales, driven by rising demand in MDS-related anemia and supportive study data. This growth aligns with Bristol Myers Squibb's strategy to expand its Growth Portfolio, which already contributed $26.4 billion in FY25, up 17% year-over-year. However, the company faces significant headwinds from legacy drug declines, particularly Revlimid, which is expected to accelerate erosion after January 31, 2026, due to volume cap removals. Key risks remain centered on Eliquis, where policy changes like IRA-mandated price resets and Medicaid free-supply agreements effective January 1, 2026, could pressure margins despite guided growth. Therefore, while Reblozyl's performance is positive, investors must monitor whether consolidated gross margins hold at the guided 69-70% range to confirm the sustainability of BMY's transition.

Implication

For investors, Reblozyl's $2.3B annualized sales underscore the momentum in BMY's newer assets, supporting the narrative that growth brands can offset legacy erosion. This reduces dependency on single products, yet Eliquis remains critical, accounting for $14.4B in FY25 sales, and its 2026 growth trajectory under policy constraints is untested. Gross margin stability at 69-70% is a key indicator; if achieved, it signals effective pricing and mix management despite headwinds, potentially supporting a base-case valuation of $65. Failure to maintain margins while showing Eliquis growth would indicate gross-to-net degradation, leading to a bearish re-rating towards $52. Therefore, prudent investors should await Q2 2026 results for clear evidence on Eliquis performance and margin resilience before committing, as the current 'WAIT' rating suggests.

Thesis delta

The news on Reblozyl reinforces the existing thesis that BMY's Growth Portfolio is expanding, but it does not alter the core risks identified in the DeepValue report. The investment call remains dependent on observable proof points in the coming quarters, specifically Eliquis meeting its +10-15% growth guide and gross margin holding steady. No material shift in the thesis is warranted at this time.